CTA Signal Projection

Select Date:

Current Spot:

Current Volatility (as %):

About the CTA Signal Model

Our proprietary CTA Signal Projection model analyzes price action using only historical price data.
The model estimates the current CTA positioning and projects changes over 1, 5, and 15-day horizons for a range of spot prices.
The Y-axis ranges from +100, representing maximum long USDBRL exposure, to -100, representing maximum short exposure.
The model is updated daily using PTAX, the official benchmark provided by the Central Bank of Brazil.

How to Use the Model

Example:
If the selected date is January 9, 2025, the black circle represents the current CTA position at the market close on that day.
The dashed black line indicates the spot price used for the calculation, which may differ from the current spot price.
The model also projects potential changes in the CTA signal over 1, 5, and 15 days, depending on various spot price movements.

Interpretation:
If the spot price moves away from the PTAX on the selected date (represented by the vertical black dotted line) and, for example,
falls by 3% over 15 days, the model suggests the CTA position would shift from its current level (represented by the horizontal
black dotted line) to the corresponding value on the Y-axis.

Disclaimer

This model is based on historical data and should be used for reference only.
It is intended as a guidance tool and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading decisions.